In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, which will always be remembered as ‘Modi wave’, BJP alone won 282 seats. It was seen as a charisma. If you see this success in the state, then it is known that more than half of these 282 seats, 149 seats were from four states – UP, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. That too as 93 per cent of the total seats in these states. It won 71 of the 80 seats in UP, 26 in 26 of Gujarat, 25 in Rajasthan and 27 in Madhya Pradesh. Clearly, this was the BJP’s top performance in these states.
BJP Leadership itself assumes that it is not easy to repeat such performance in these states now. In view of this, BJP has chosen six such states for 2019, where its performance in the last election is not very good. These states are Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala and Odisha. There are 164 seats in the Lok Sabha from these states. But last time, BJP managed to win only seven of them. BJP Leadership thinks that focusing on these states can compensate the losses in the better performing states in the last elections.
In this 20-seat state, BJP wants to establish itself as a Third Front. That is why he is in the field with aggression. Her attempt is to prove UDF and LDF two aspects of a coin. In fact, here is the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the CPM-led (LDF) coalition which has been in power for the past four decades. With the necessity of making a place for themselves, the Bharat Dharma in the BJP state wants to expand its relations with the army.
In the 39-seat state, BJP has many options. In the elections of 14, the party got only one seat from here. He feels that due to Jayalalitha’s death and the rising age of Karunanidhi + the domination of local parties in the state has reduced. Ruling AIADMK Leadership is ready to combine with BJP. Rajinikanth can also come with BJP. Apart from this, one possibility is to make a big alliance with Vijaykant’s DMDK, ER Ishwaran’s KMDK, PMK of S. Ramdas, MDM of Vaiko, PNK of AC Shanmugam and together with PNK. BJP can play a senior partner in the Lok Sabha elections and become a junior partner in the assembly elections.
This state has 25 Lok Sabha seats. In the 2014 elections, BJP won two seats here. In that election BJP had an alliance with TDP on here. But now the ways of both have separated. BJP does not have any strength here alone. Because of this, he is now stepping up to the alliance with YSR Congress here. YSR Congress is considered to be a good influence in the state. In 2014, it won 8 seats against TDP’s 15 seats.
In this state of 17 seats, BJP won only one seat in 2014. Here is the power of TRS. There is also the same government in the state. In the Lok Sabha, 11 MPs out of 17 are also of the same. His relationship with BJP is not very good. Because of this, there is no scope for coalition between the two parties. BJP here also intends to contest elections with YSR Congress. Even for YSR Congress, there is a compulsion to do this because the situation in the state is not very strong.
In this state of 21 seats, the BJP’s attempt is to offer itself as an alternative and to capitalize on the annoyed power against the Naveen Patnaik government. In the last election, it got only one seat. But it was a matter of great comfort that the Congress could not win a single seat. Later, he performed better than the Congress in the local elections. The party intends to contest the elections alone here.
In this 42-member state, BJP will go to the polls alone. The biggest plus point here for BJP is that he has established himself as an alternative against Mamta. The anti-Mamta vote, the possibility of going with the Congress or the Left, has become very limited. In the minds of BJP voters, Mamata-Congress-Leftist is all one. Amit Shah’s assessment is to win 22 seats from West Bengal.