In a first forecast about the all important monsoon of the country, the private weather forecasting agency Skymet projected that southwest monsoon in 2018 is expected to be normal at 100 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of plus and minus 5 per cent.
It need be mentioned that the Long Period Average for the June to September rains is around 887 millimetres.
The agency is of firm opinion that there is near zero possibility of a massive drought or deficient rainfall when the total cumulative seasonal rainfall across the country falls below 90 per cent of LPA.
It need be recalled that over the last three seasons, actual rains were below Skymet’s first forecast in 2015 and 2016.
The country receives around 289 millimetres of rainfall in July, which is also the highest in the four-month monsoon season that starts from June.
It is to be noted that this month is also crucial for sowing of most kharif crops.>