Including handouts for farmers and tax cuts for the lower middle class, is likely to weigh on whoever forms the next administration, economists warned on Friday.
The government abandoned its budget deficit target for the next financial year ending March 31, 2020, saying it now aimed to come in at 3.4 percent of gross domestic product against an earlier goal of 3.1 percent, as it tries to tackle a rural incomes crisis partly caused by low crop prices. But it did keep the target at 3 percent for the 2020-21 year.
Economists fear some of the assumptions built into the math for those goals are too aggressive – especially its forecasts for strong tax revenue growth.
That means they are unconvinced that the next government – whether PM Modi wins the election, due by May, or not – will hit the deficit goals in those two years.
“The next government will likely inherit some fiscal risks as revenue expectations look ambitious,” said Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging market strategist at TD Securities in Singapore.
“If there is no real pick up in tax collections, then the next government will need to take further steps to stick to the fiscal deficit target.”
That could include cutting capital spending, which could hurt an economy that badly needs improved infrastructure.
It also gives the next government little wiggle room if the global economy keeps slowing.
PM Modi’s Hindu nationalist-led government pledged Rs 750 billion ($10.56 billion) to make direct payments to farmers owning less than two hectares of land, and allocated more money for rural jobs and development, such as better roads