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State Bank of India revises FY21 GDP estimates to -7.0 pct

SBI is expecting FY 22 GDP to be 11%. But it has cautioned that all projections are conditional on the absence of any rise in infections.

State Bank of India’s Economic Research Department revised FY21 GDP estimates to -7.0%. Previously it had estimated GDP at -7.4%. As per the report authored by SBI’s Group Chief Economic Advisor Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, based on ‘SBI Nowcasting Model’ the GDP growth forecast for Q3 would be around 0.3%.

Apart from Q3 FY21, the Q4 growth will also be in positive territory (approximately 2.5%). SBI is expecting FY 22 GDP to be 11%. But it has cautioned that all projections are conditional on the absence of any rise in infections.

The report says the 9.5% fiscal deficit of the Centre might be on the higher side. SBI has already estimated that excluding off-balance sheet liabilities, fiscal deficit of the Centre is at 8.7% of GDP.

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